Oscillatory regimes in a mosquito population model with larval feedback on egg hatching

TL;DR

This paper introduces a mathematical model explaining oscillations in mosquito populations through larval feedback on egg hatching, combining theoretical analysis and numerical simulations.

Contribution

It presents a novel model linking larval feedback to egg hatching, providing a potential explanation for observed population oscillations.

Findings

Model exhibits oscillations consistent with empirical observations

Analysis reveals bifurcation points leading to oscillatory behavior

Numerical simulations support the theoretical predictions

Abstract

Understanding mosquitoes life cycle is of great interest presently because of the increasing impact of vector borne diseases in several countries. There is evidence of oscillations in mosquito populations independent of seasonality, still unexplained, based on observations both in laboratories and in nature. We propose a simple mathematical model of egg hatching enhancement by larvae which produces such oscillations that conveys a possible explanation. We propose both a theoretical analysis, based on slow-fast dynamics and Hopf bifurcation, and numerical investigations in order to shed some light on the mechanisms at work in this model.