End-of-Use Core Triage in Extreme Scenarios Based on a Threshold Approach

TL;DR

This paper develops a threshold-based model using the Generalized Pareto Distribution to predict extreme core arrival flows in remanufacturing, improving efficiency in handling rare but impactful extreme scenarios.

Contribution

It introduces a GPD-based model for extreme core flow prediction and demonstrates its effectiveness over GEV, enhancing remanufacturing triage strategies in extreme situations.

Findings

GPD outperforms GEV in modeling extreme core flows.

The model accurately predicts over-capacity probability in a case study.

GPD-based triage improves operational decision-making.

Abstract

Remanufacturing is a significant factor in securing sustainability through a circular economy. Sorting plays a significant role in remanufacturing pre-processing inspections. Its significance can increase when remanufacturing facilities encounter extreme situations, such as abnormally huge core arrivals. Our main objective in this work is switching from less efficient to a more efficient model and to characterize extreme behavior of core arrival in remanufacturing and applying the developed model to triage cores. Central tendency core flow models are not sufficient to handle extreme situations, however, complementary Extreme Value (EV) approaches have shown to improve model efficiency. Extreme core flows to remanufacturing facilities are rare but still likely and can adversely affect remanufacturing business operations. In this investigation, extreme end-of-use core flow is modelled by a threshold approach using the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). It is shown that GPD has better performance than its maxima-block GEV counterpart from practical and data efficiency perspectives. The model is validated by a synthesized big dataset, tested by sophisticated statistical Anderson Darling (AD) test, and is applied to a case of extreme flow to a valve shop in order to predict probability of over-capacity arrivals that is critical in remanufacturing business management. Finally, the GPD model combined with triage strategies is used to initiate investigations into the efficacy of different triage methods in remanufacturing operations.