The dynamical structure of political corruption networks

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the structure and dynamics of political corruption networks in Brazil, revealing small group sizes, modular structures, and the potential for predicting future corrupt partnerships using network science.

Contribution

It provides a novel analysis of corruption networks' dynamical structure and demonstrates their predictive power for future scandals.

Findings

Corruption occurs in small groups of up to eight people.

Networks exhibit hubs and modular structures across scandals.

Network dynamics can predict future corrupt partnerships.

Abstract

Corruptive behaviour in politics limits economic growth, embezzles public funds, and promotes socio-economic inequality in modern democracies. We analyse well-documented political corruption scandals in Brazil over the past 27 years, focusing on the dynamical structure of networks where two individuals are connected if they were involved in the same scandal. Our research reveals that corruption runs in small groups that rarely comprise more than eight people, in networks that have hubs and a modular structure that encompasses more than one corruption scandal. We observe abrupt changes in the size of the largest connected component and in the degree distribution, which are due to the coalescence of different modules when new scandals come to light or when governments change. We show further that the dynamical structure of political corruption networks can be used for successfully predicting partners in future scandals. We discuss the important role of network science in detecting and mitigating political corruption.