A Hierarchical Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Model for Large Clustered Climate data with Annual Cycles

TL;DR

This paper introduces a hierarchical multivariate spatio-temporal model for large climate datasets, capturing dependencies, annual cycles, and missing data, enabling detailed climate surface interpolation and ecological region analysis.

Contribution

It develops a novel hierarchical model combining Gaussian processes and coregionalization for large climate data with missing values and seasonal cycles.

Findings

Effective imputation of missing climate data.

Accurate interpolation of climate surfaces at national scale.

Enhanced characterization of Italian ecoregions.

Abstract

We present a multivariate hierarchical space-time model to describe the joint series of monthly extreme temperatures and amounts of rainfall. Data are available for 360 monitoring stations over 60 years, with missing data affecting almost all series. Model components account for spatio-temporal dependence with annual cycles, dependence on covariates and between responses. The very large amount of data is tackled modeling the spatio-temporal dependence by the nearest neighbor Gaussian process. Response multivariate dependencies are described using the linear model of coregionalization, while annual cycles are assessed by a circular representation of time. The proposed approach allows imputation of missing values and easy interpolation of climate surfaces at the national level. The motivation behind is the characterization of the so called ecoregions over the Italian territory. Ecoregions delineate broad and discrete ecologically homogeneous areas of similar potential as regards the climate, physiography, hydrography, vegetation and wildlife, and provide a geographic framework for interpreting ecological processes, disturbance regimes, vegetation patterns and dynamics. To now, the two main Italian macro-ecoregions are hierarchically arranged into 35 zones. The current climatic characterization of Italian ecoregions is based on data and bioclimatic indices for the period 1955-1985 and requires an appropriate update.