Exploring the Lyapunov instability properties of high-dimensional atmospheric and climate models

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the stability and chaos in high-dimensional climate models by computing Lyapunov exponents, revealing how different factors influence atmospheric and oceanic instabilities and their implications for climate variability.

Contribution

It provides a detailed Lyapunov spectrum analysis of two intermediate-order climate models, highlighting the effects of filtering, ocean coupling, and resolution on model stability and dynamics.

Findings

Higher temperature gradient increases instability and model dimension.

Dominant atmospheric instability is captured even at low resolutions.

Ocean dynamics require higher resolution to fully resolve long time-scale processes.

Abstract

The stability properties of intermediate-order climate models are investigated by computing their Lyapunov exponents (LEs). The two models considered are PUMA (Portable University Model of the Atmosphere), a primitive-equation simple general circulation model, and MAOOAM (Modular Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model), a quasi-geostrophic coupled ocean-atmosphere model on a beta-plane. We wish to investigate the effect of the different levels of filtering on the instabilities and dynamics of the atmospheric flows. Moreover, we assess the impact of the oceanic coupling, the dissipation scheme and the resolution on the spectra of LEs. The PUMA Lyapunov spectrum is computed for two different values of the meridional temperature gradient defining the Newtonian forcing. The increase of the gradient gives rise to a higher baroclinicity and stronger instabilities, corresponding to a larger dimension of the unstable manifold and a larger first LE. The convergence rate of the rate functional for the large deviation law of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) is fast for all exponents, which can be interpreted as resulting from the absence of a clear-cut atmospheric time-scale separation in such a model. The MAOOAM spectra show that the dominant atmospheric instability is correctly represented even at low resolutions. However, the dynamics of the central manifold, which is mostly associated to the ocean dynamics, is not fully resolved because of its associated long time scales, even at intermediate orders. This paper highlights the need to investigate the natural variability of the atmosphere-ocean coupled dynamics by associating rate of growth and decay of perturbations to the physical modes described using the formalism of the covariant Lyapunov vectors and to consider long integrations in order to disentangle the dynamical processes occurring at all time scales.