Increasing Geminid meteor shower activity
G. O. Ryabova, J. Rendtel
TL;DR
This study confirms that the Geminid meteor shower's activity has been increasing over time, based on mathematical modeling and observational data from 1985 to 2016, with no expected outburst in 2017.
Contribution
It provides a validated model of the Geminid activity increase and predicts no outburst in 2017 despite asteroid Phaethon's close approach.
Findings
Geminid activity has been rising from 1985 to 2016.
No outburst expected in 2017.
Possible dust ejection from 2009-2016 perihelia.
Abstract
Mathematical modelling has shown that activity of the Geminid meteor shower should rise with time, and that was confirmed by analysis of visual observations 1985--2016. We do not expect any outburst activity of the Geminid shower in 2017, even though the asteroid (3200) Phaethon has close approach to Earth in December of 2017. A small probability to observe dust ejected at perihelia 2009--2016 still exists.
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