A Deep Learning Framework for Short-term Power Load Forecasting

TL;DR

This paper introduces a deep learning framework utilizing data transformation, copula modeling, and deep belief networks to improve short-term power load forecasting accuracy across different seasons.

Contribution

It presents a novel combination of data processing, copula-based tail dependence analysis, and deep belief networks for enhanced short-term load prediction.

Findings

The framework outperforms classical neural networks and other machine learning models.

Forecasting accuracy is validated across seasonal and time horizon variations.

The approach effectively captures tail dependencies influencing peak load predictions.

Abstract

The scheduling and operation of power system becomes prominently complex and uncertain, especially with the penetration of distributed power. Load forecasting matters to the effective operation of power system. This paper proposes a novel deep learning framework to forecast the short-term grid load. First, the load data is processed by Box-Cox transformation, and two parameters (electricity price and temperature) are investigated. Then, to quantify the tail-dependence of power load on the two parameters, parametric Copula models are fitted and the threshold of peak load are computed. Next, a deep belief network is built to forecast the hourly load of the power grid. One year grid load data collected from an urbanized area in Texas, United States is utilized in the case studies. Short-term load forecasting are examined in four seasons independently. Day-ahead and week-ahead load forecasting experiments are conducted in each season using the proposed framework. The proposed framework is compared with classical neural networks, support vector regression machine, extreme learning machine, and classical deep belief networks. The load forecasting performances are assessed by mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, and hit rate. Computational results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed data-driven deep learning framework. The prediction accuracies of both day-ahead forecasting and week-ahead forecasting demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms the tested algorithms.