Recent Photometric Monitoring of KIC 8462852, the Detection of a Potential Repeat of the Kepler Day 1540 Dip and a Plausible Model

TL;DR

This study analyzes photometric data of KIC 8462852, proposing a model involving a brown dwarf with a ring system to explain its mysterious dips and predicting future dimming events based on this hypothesis.

Contribution

It introduces a transit simulation model and suggests a plausible brown dwarf and ring system explanation for the star's unusual dimming patterns, including a potential repeat of the D1540 dip.

Findings

Identification of a potential repeat of the D1540 dip in 2017

Proposal of a brown dwarf with a ring system as the cause of dips

Prediction of future dimming events in 2021-2022

Abstract

This paper presents V- and g'-band observations of the F2V star KIC 8462852, which exhibited enigmatic fade patterns in Kepler mission data. We introduce a transit simulation model for interpretation of these fades, and use it to interpret an August 2017 dip as a repeat of the Kepler day 1540 dip (D1540). We suggest the August 2017 and D1540 dips may be caused by a brown dwarf and an associated ring system in a 1601-day elliptical orbit. Transiting icy moons of the proposed brown dwarf, sublimating near periapsis like comets, could provide an explanation for the significant dips observed by Kepler, as well as the recent May to October 2017 dips and the long term variation in flux detected by Simon et al. (2017). Whereas the presence of such a ring structure is attractive for its ability to explain short term fade events, we do not address how such a ring system can be created and maintained. If our speculation is correct, a brightening of about 1-2 percent should occur during October to November 2017. In addition, this scenario predicts that a set of dimming events, similar to those in 2013 (Kepler) and in 2017 (reported here), can be expected to repeat during October 2021 to January 2022 and a repeat of D1540 should occur on 27 December 2021.