The Research on the Stagnant Development of Shantou Special Economic Zone Under Reform and Opening-Up Policy

TL;DR

This paper examines the stagnation of Shantou's economic development under the Reform and Opening-Up Policy, analyzing policy impacts, regional separation, and future prospects using statistical methods.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of policy effects and regional separation on Shantou's economy, highlighting reasons for stagnation and potential future restructuring.

Findings

Policy separation affected economic growth post-1991

Statistical analysis reveals stagnation factors

Future merging could revitalize development

Abstract

This study briefly introduces the development of Shantou Special Economic Zone under Reform and Opening-Up Policy from 1980 through 2016 with a focus on policy making issues and its influences on local economy. This paper is divided into two parts, 1980 to 1991, 1992 to 2016 in accordance with the separation of the original Shantou District into three cities: Shantou, Chaozhou and Jieyang in the end of 1991. This study analyzes the policy making issues in the separation of the original Shantou District, the influences of the policy on Shantou's economy after separation, the possibility of merging the three cities into one big new economic district in the future and reasons that lead to the stagnant development of Shantou in recent 20 years. This paper uses statistical longitudinal analysis in analyzing economic problems with applications of non-parametric statistics through generalized additive model and time series forecasting methods. The paper is authored by Bowen Cai solely, who is the graduate student in the PhD program of Applied and Computational Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Notre Dame with concentration in big data analysis.