A New Approach To Estimate The Collision Probability For Automotive Applications

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel method to estimate collision probability in automotive scenarios using a collision probability rate derived from level crossing theory, providing bounds and practical approximations for real-time applications.

Contribution

It develops a general expression for the upper bound of collision probability rate applicable to arbitrary prediction models, including process noise, and demonstrates its effectiveness through simulations and practical approximations.

Findings

Distributions from Monte-Carlo simulations obey the derived bounds.

The proposed approximation can be computed efficiently on embedded platforms.

The method extends to collisions involving extended objects with arbitrary orientations.

Abstract

We revisit the computation of a probability of collision in the context of automotive collision avoidance (also referred to as conflict detection in other contexts). After reviewing existing approaches to the definition and computation of a collision probability we argue that the question "What is the probability of collision within the next three seconds?" can be answered on the basis of a collision probability rate. Using results on level crossings for vector stochastic processes we derive a general expression for the upper bound of the distribution of the collision probability rate. This expression is valid for arbitrary prediction models including process noise. We demonstrate in several examples that distributions obtained by large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations obey this bound and in many cases approximately saturate the bound. We derive an approximation for the distribution of the collision probability rate that can be computed on an embedded platform. An upper bound of the probability of collision is then obtained by one-dimensional numerical integration over the time period of interest. A straightforward application of this method applies to the collision of an extended object with a second point-like object. Using an abstraction of the second object by salient points of its boundary we propose an application of this method to two extended objects with arbitrary orientation. Finally, the distribution of the collision probability rate is compared to approximations of time-to-collision distributions for one-dimensional motions that have been obtained previously.