Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian sampling approach to efficiently identify optimal influenza mitigation strategies using epidemiological models, significantly reducing computational evaluations needed for decision-making.

Contribution

It develops a novel fixed-budget Bayesian best-arm identification method tailored for epidemiological modeling, improving efficiency over traditional uniform sampling techniques.

Findings

Achieves 2-3 times faster identification of optimal strategies

Demonstrates effectiveness of Bayesian algorithms in realistic settings

Provides a confidence statistic for decision makers

Abstract

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation.