Complex Dynamics of Bus, Tram and Elevator Delays in Transportation System

TL;DR

This paper introduces nonlinear map models to describe and analyze the complex dynamics of delays in buses, trams, and elevators, aiming to improve the accuracy of arrival time estimates in transportation systems.

Contribution

It develops novel nonlinear map models for shuttle buses, trams, and elevators, providing a new framework to understand and predict their delay dynamics.

Findings

Nonlinear maps effectively describe bus delay dynamics.

Models can estimate bus arrival times accurately.

Complex delay patterns are captured by the proposed models.

Abstract

It is necessary and important to operate buses and trams on time. The bus schedule is closely related to the dynamic motion of buses. In this part, we introduce the nonlinear maps for describing the dynamics of shuttle buses in the transportation system. The complex motion of the buses is explained by the nonlinear-map models. The transportation system of shuttle buses without passing is similar to that of the trams. The transport of elevators is also similar to that of shuttle buses with freely passing. The complex dynamics of a single bus is described in terms of the piecewise map, the delayed map, the extended circle map and the combined map. The dynamics of a few buses is described by the model of freely passing buses, the model of no passing buses, and the model of increase or decrease of buses. The nonlinear-map models are useful to make an accurate estimate of the arrival time in the bus transportation.