Debye-H\"{u}ckel Theory for Refugees' Migration

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel model inspired by Debye-Hückel theory to predict Syrian refugees' migration to Lebanon, outperforming gravity models by accounting for interactions between origin cities.

Contribution

It applies a physics-inspired model to migration, incorporating interactions between source locations, which improves prediction accuracy over traditional models.

Findings

The Debye-Hückel inspired model accurately predicts refugee flows.

Interactions between origin cities influence migration patterns.

The model outperforms the gravity model in this context.

Abstract

In this Letter we follow the short-ranged Syrian refugees' migration to Lebanon as documented by the UNHCR. We propose a model inspired by the Debye-H\"{u}ckel theory and show that it properly predicts the refugees' mobility while the gravity model fails. We claim that the interaction between origin cities attenuates and/or extenuates the flux to destinations, and consequently, in analogy with the effective charges of interacting particles in a plasma, these source cities are characterized by effective populations determined by their pairwise remoteness/closeness and defined by areas of control between the fighting parties.