New Probabilistic Model For Episode Integrated Fluences of Protons Using Episodes From 1973-2013

TL;DR

This paper introduces a probabilistic model for proton fluences based on episode integrated data from 1973 to 2013, enabling mission-specific spectrum construction at 1 AU.

Contribution

It presents a novel probabilistic model and a comprehensive database of episode integrated fluences spanning 40 years for improved solar proton event analysis.

Findings

Developed a probabilistic model for proton fluences.

Created the largest database of episode integrated fluences.

Enables mission-specific proton spectrum estimation.

Abstract

A new probabilistic model for protons has been created using episode integrated fluences. This model will allow the user to choose a mission start date, mission duration, and confidence level to construct a mission-specific, bounding case spectrum for proton fluences at a distance of 1 $AU$ from the sun. A new database of episode integrated fluences will be created for this model. The database will contain 29 channels that span the energy range 0.88-485 $MeV$. This database will cover the period from November 1, 1973 to December 31, 2013, making it the largest database on solar activity.