Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24 ?

TL;DR

This study predicts that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24, with Cycles 25 and 26 having similar strength, based on analysis of historical sunspot data and solar activity patterns.

Contribution

The paper introduces a new prediction of solar cycle amplitudes using cosine fits and historical rules, providing insights into future solar activity levels.

Findings

Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24.

Cycles 25 and 26 will have similar strength.

Cycle 29 will mark the next Gleissberg maximum.

Abstract

The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1-24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the `tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610-2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600-2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30-40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25.