Mathematical Modelling to Investigate a Wolbachia Intervention to Reduce Dengue Transmission

TL;DR

This paper develops deterministic mathematical models to evaluate how Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes can reduce dengue transmission in human populations, considering different serotype circulation and introduction scenarios.

Contribution

It introduces adapted mathematical models to assess Wolbachia's effectiveness in lowering dengue incidence in humans, accounting for multiple serotypes and introduction patterns.

Findings

Wolbachia can significantly reduce dengue transmission in modeled scenarios.

Multiple dengue serotypes influence Wolbachia intervention effectiveness.

Repeated dengue introductions affect outbreak dynamics and control strategies.

Abstract

The introduction of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes into the population has recently been proposed as an alternative strategy against dengue. Although laboratory experiments have shown that the Wolbachia bacterium can reduce the levels of dengue virus in mosquitoes, it is also important to assess the performance of Wolbachia in reducing the incidence of dengue in human populations.In this thesis, deterministic mathematical models of human and mosquito populations in which either one or two dengue serotypes circulate are developed. We adapt these models to enable the investigation of dengue disease dynamics in the absence and presence of Wolbachia in order to assess the performance of Wolbachia as a strategy to reduce human dengue incidence. When studying the situation in which a single dengue serotype is present in the population, we consider scenarios where dengue is introduced into the human population once and multiple times.