A bare-bones mathematical model of radicalization

TL;DR

This paper presents a simple mathematical model of radicalization, extending epidemiological models to multiple ideologies, and evaluates strategies to prevent violent extremism.

Contribution

It introduces a novel compartmental model for radicalization and extends it to multiple ideologies, providing a new framework for analyzing extremism dynamics.

Findings

Model captures radicalization dynamics effectively

Multiple ideologies can coexist and compete in the model

Strategies to counter extremism are assessed through simulations

Abstract

Radicalization is the process by which people come to adopt increasingly extreme political or religious ideologies. While radical thinking is by no means problematic in itself, it becomes a threat to national security when it leads to violence. We introduce a simple compartmental model (similar to epidemiology models) to describe the radicalization process. We then extend the model to allow for multiple ideologies. Our approach is similar to the one used in the study of multi-strain diseases. Based on our models, we assess several strategies to counter violent extremism.