Modelling Surveys Effects in Political Competitions

TL;DR

This paper presents an agent-based model to analyze how news media and public surveys influence voter opinions and electoral consensus in political campaigns, highlighting the potential to manage opinion dynamics.

Contribution

It introduces a novel agent-based simulation framework to study the impact of surveys on voter opinion formation in electoral contexts.

Findings

Surveys can significantly influence voter opinions.

Opinion consensus can be managed through survey timing and frequency.

The model demonstrates the potential to steer electoral outcomes.

Abstract

In this paper we study the impact of news media and public surveys on the electoral campaigns for political competitions. We present an agent-based model that addresses the effective influence of surveys in orienting the opinions of voters before elections. The dynamics of electoral consensus is studied as a function of time by investigating different possible scenarios and the effect of periodic surveys, on the opinions of a small community of voters represented as a network of agents connected by realistic social relationships. Our simulations show the possibility to manage opinion consensus in electoral competitions.