Earthquake precursors in the light of peroxy defects theory: critical review of systematic observations

TL;DR

This review explores a unifying solid-state theory based on peroxy defects that could explain various earthquake precursors, emphasizing the need for systematic testing to validate their predictive value.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive physical mechanism linking pre-earthquake phenomena to electronic charge activation in rocks, integrating physics, chemistry, and rock mechanics.

Findings

Pre-earthquake phenomena can be explained by activation of electronic charges in rocks.

Satellite and ground data show precursors often appear days or weeks before earthquakes.

Systematic statistical testing is necessary to validate precursor signals.

Abstract

The starting point of the present review is to acknowledge that there are innumerable reports of non-seismic types of earthquake precursory phenomena that are intermittent and seem not to occur systematically, while associated reports are not widely accepted by the geoscience community at large because no one could explain their origins. We review a unifying theory for a solid-state mechanism, based on decades of research bridging semi-conductor physics, chemistry and rock physics. A synthesis has emerged that all pre-earthquake phenomena could trace back to one fundamental physical process: the activation of electronic charges (electrons and positive holes) in rocks subjected to ever-increasing tectonic stresses prior to any major seismic activity, via the rupture of peroxy bonds. In the second part of the review, we critically examine satellite and ground station data, recorded before past large earthquakes, as they have been claimed to provide evidence that precursory signals tend to become measurable days, sometimes weeks before the disasters. We review some of the various phenomena that can be directly predicted by the peroxy defect theory , namely, radon gas emanations, corona discharges, thermal infrared emissions, air ionization, ion and electron content in the ionosphere, and electro-magnetic anomalies. Our analysis demonstrates the need for further systematic investigations, in particular with strong continuous statistical testing of the relevance and confidence of the precursors. Only then, the scientific community will be able to assess and improve the performance of earthquake forecasts.