Supernova forecast with strong lensing

TL;DR

This paper explores predicting the timing and location of strongly lensed supernova images, especially the fourth image, using early observations of the first three images, aiding early multi-messenger follow-up.

Contribution

It demonstrates the feasibility of forecasting the fourth image of lensed supernovae using prior images, enhancing early detection and observation strategies.

Findings

Prediction of the fourth image timing and position is possible.

Early images can inform multi-messenger observation planning.

Method benefits early supernova explosion studies.

Abstract

In the coming LSST era, we will observe $\mathcal{O}(100)$ of lensed supernovae (SNe). In this paper, we investigate possibility for predicting time and sky position of a supernova using strong lensing. We find that it will be possible to predict the time and position of the fourth image of SNe which produce four images by strong lensing, with combined information from the three previous images. It is useful to perform multi-messenger observations of the very early phase of supernova explosions including the shock breakout.