Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting Algorithms and Associated False Alarms
Bill Swalwell, Silvia Dalla, Robert Walsh

TL;DR
This study evaluates and compares simple SEP forecasting algorithms based on solar flares and CMEs, finding that combined parameters improve prediction accuracy and reduce missed events.
Contribution
Introduces a new combined CME and flare-based forecasting algorithm that reduces missed SEP events and false alarms compared to single-parameter methods.
Findings
Fast CME-based algorithm has fewer false alarms than flare-based.
Both simple algorithms miss about half of SEP events.
Combined CME and flare algorithm reduces missed events to 32.4%.
Abstract
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are known to occur following solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However some high-energy solar events do not result in SEPs being detected at Earth, and it is these types of event which may be termed "false alarms". We define two simple SEP forecasting algorithms based upon the occurrence of a magnetically well-connected CME with a speed in excess of 1500 km/s ("a fast CME") or a well-connected X-class flare and analyse them with respect to historical data sets. We compare the parameters of those solar events which produced an enhancement of >40 MeV protons at Earth ("an SEP event") and the false alarms. We find that an SEP forecasting algorithm based solely upon the occurrence of a well-connected fast CME produces fewer false alarms (28.8%) than one based solely upon a well-connected X-class flare (50.6%). Both algorithms fail to…
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