Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future

TL;DR

This paper explains the Anthropocene's origin as a natural consequence of hyperbolic growth in population and economy, and discusses its uncertain future due to ongoing unsustainable trends.

Contribution

It introduces a hyperbolic growth model to explain the Anthropocene's origin and emphasizes the importance of viewing growth as a whole rather than in separate phases.

Findings

Hyperbolic growth explains the Anthropocene's origin.

Growth trends are still near hyperbolic trajectories.

Future risks include continued population and economic growth.

Abstract

Growth of the world population and the world economic growth were hyperbolic in the past 2,000,000 years. Recently, from around 1950, they started to be diverted to slower trajectories but they are still close to the historical hyperbolic trajectories. Regional growth of population and regional economic growth were also hyperbolic. Hyperbolic growth can be slow over a long time and fast over a short time but it is still the same, monotonically increasing, growth. It is incorrect to interpret slow growth as stagnation and fast growth as explosion, each controlled by different mechanisms of growth. Hyperbolic growth has to be interpreted as a whole and the same mechanism has to be applied to the slow and to the fast growth. The Anthropocene is characterised by the rapid growth of population, rapid economic growth and rapid consumption of natural resources. The origin of the Anthropocene can be explained as the natural consequence of hyperbolic growth. However, while its dramatic impacts became apparent only recently its starting point cannot be mathematically determined. Its beginning could be traced to the dawn of the existence of hominines. Its future is insecure because it is dictated by many critical trends shaping the future or our planet, but notably because the size of the world population is predicted to continue to increase at least until the end of the current century to a possibly unsustainable level and because the world economic growth follows now an unsustainable trajectory.