Exploiting oddsmaker bias to improve the prediction of NFL outcomes

TL;DR

This paper investigates whether biases in oddsmaker predictions can be exploited to improve NFL game outcome forecasts, demonstrating that such bias-aware models outperform traditional methods in certain conditions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach that leverages oddsmaker biases for outcome prediction, showing potential for increased accuracy and profit in sports betting.

Findings

Bias-aware models outperform traditional predictions

Exploiting oddsmaker bias improves NFL outcome forecasts

Results suggest potential for profit increase in betting strategies

Abstract

Accurately predicting the outcome of sporting events has been a goal for many groups who seek to maximize profit. What makes this challenging is that the outcome of an event can be influenced by many factors that dynamically change across time. Oddsmakers attempt to estimate these factors by using both algorithmic and subjective methods to set the spread. However, it is well-known that both human and algorithmic decision-making can be biased, so this paper explores if oddsmaker biases can be used in an exploitative manner, in order to improve the prediction of NFL game outcomes. Real-world gambling data was used to train and test different predictive models under varying assumptions. The results show that methods that leverage oddsmaker biases in an exploitative manner perform best under the conditions tested in this paper. These findings suggest that leveraging human and algorithmic decision biases in an exploitative manner may be useful for predicting the outcomes of competitive events, and could lead to increased profit for those who have financial interest in the outcomes.