Predicting the Loci of Solar Eruptions

TL;DR

This paper develops a forecast model for predicting the positions of active longitudes on the Sun, which are associated with increased likelihood of solar flares and CMEs, using an ARIMA model over a two-year period.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of ARIMA modeling to predict the spatial distribution of active longitudes on the Sun, linking them to flare and CME activity.

Findings

ARIMA model successfully predicts active longitude positions for two years.

Significant correlation between active longitudes and flare/CME occurrences.

Forecasts identify when active regions face Earth, aiding space weather prediction.

Abstract

The longitudinal distribution of solar active regions shows non-homogeneous spatial behaviour, which is often referred to as Active Longitude (AL). Evidence for a significant statistical relationships between the AL and the longitudinal distribution of flare and coronal mass ejections (CME) occurrences is found in Gyenge et al, 2017 (ApJ, 838, 18). The present work forecasts the spatial position of AL, hence the most flare/CME capable active regions are also predictable. Our forecast method applies Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model for the next 2 years time period. We estimated the dates when the solar flare/CME capable longitudinal belts face towards Earth.