Bayesian analysis of 210Pb dating

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian statistical model for 210Pb dating that improves error estimation and flexibility over traditional methods, enabling more accurate and robust chronologies for sedimentary sequences.

Contribution

The paper develops a comprehensive Bayesian framework for 210Pb dating, incorporating both supported and unsupported 210Pb and allowing for more accurate error estimates and model extensions.

Findings

The Bayesian model provides more realistic error estimates.

Application to case studies demonstrates improved dating accuracy.

Model flexibility allows integration with other dating methods.

Abstract

In many studies of environmental change of the past few centuries, 210Pb dating is used to obtain chronologies for sedimentary sequences. One of the most commonly used approaches to estimate the ages of depths in a sequence is to assume a constant rate of supply (CRS) or influx of `unsupported' 210Pb from the atmosphere, together with a constant or varying amount of `supported' 210Pb. Current 210Pb dating models do not use a proper statistical framework and thus provide poor estimates of errors. Here we develop a new model for 210Pb dating, where both ages and values of supported and unsupported 210Pb form part of the parameters. We apply our model to a case study from Canada as well as to some simulated examples. Our model can extend beyond the current CRS approach, deal with asymmetric errors and mix 210Pb with other types of dating, thus obtaining more robust, realistic and statistically better defined estimates.