Hubbert's theory and photovoltaics: the nonsense race of breaking energy-conversion records

TL;DR

This paper critically examines the physical and economic limits of photovoltaics, arguing that overemphasis on efficiency improvements may overlook fundamental constraints and the unsustainability of current energy transition paradigms.

Contribution

It applies Hubbert's theory to photovoltaics, highlighting the overestimation of efficiency gains and questioning the feasibility of sustainable energy transitions based on current research focus.

Findings

Photovoltaic efficiency improvements are often associated with complex, expensive technologies.

Physical limits suggest diminishing returns in photovoltaic efficiency advancements.

Socioeconomic models may be unrealistic if fossil fuels are non-replaceable.

Abstract

The wide public sees solar energy as the future of mankind, and media channels quite oftenly states that our challenge is to improve efficiencies and reduce cost. However, one may point some unconvenient truth's about the physical limits we are facing, that are barely discussed by the public or even by scientists and institutions that are strongly biased towards a picture of a sustainable oil free energy in the future. In this work we discuss some of those physical limits of photovoltaics based on the principle of the Hubbert's theory for the oil peak, evidencing that much of the research is focused on photovoltaic efficiencies and this parameter is widely overestimated: better efficiencies oftenly are the result of complex technologies that are expensive and not scalable. In this context, if fossil fuels proved not replaceable, it is very likely that our socioeconomic ideas based in the past will not withstand an energy transition to high cost and low quality sources.