Malaria intensity in Colombia by regions and populations

TL;DR

This study maps malaria distribution in Colombia, identifying epidemic and endemic regions, and analyzing population-specific risks using spatial and topological methods.

Contribution

It introduces a combined methodological approach to analyze regional malaria patterns and identifies key epidemic and bridge regions in Colombia.

Findings

Plasmodium falciparum is epidemic in 1.2% of municipalities.

Plasmodium vivax is prevalent in northern and southern regions.

Endemic malaria affects Indigenous and Afrocolombian populations.

Abstract

Determining the distribution of disease prevalence among heterogeneous populations at the national scale is fundamental for epidemiology and public health. Here, we use a combination of methods (spatial scan statistic, topological data analysis, epidemic profile) to study measurable differences in malaria intensity by regions and populations of Colombia. This study explores three main questions: What are the regions of Colombia where malaria is epidemic? What are the regions and populations in Colombia where malaria is endemic? What associations exist between epidemic outbreaks between regions in Colombia? \textit{Plasmodium falciparum} is most prevalent in the Pacific Coast, some regions of the Amazon Basin, and some regions of the Magdalena Basin. \textit{Plasmodium vivax} is the most prevalent parasite in Colombia, particularly in the Northern Amazon Basin, the Caribbean, and municipalities of Sucre, Antioquia and Cordoba. Malaria has been reported to be most common among 15-45 year old men. We find that the age-class suffering high risk of malaria infection ranges from 20 to 30 with an acute peak at 25 years of age. Second, this pattern was not found to be generalizable across Colombian populations, Indigenous and Afrocolombian populations experience endemic malaria (with household transmission). Third, clusters of epidemic malaria for \textit{Plasmodium vivax} were detected across Southern Colombia including the Amazon Basin and the Southern Pacific region. \textit{Plasmodium falciparum}, was is epidemic in 13 of the 1,123 municipalities (1.2\%). Some key locations act as bridges between epidemic and endemic regions. Finally, we generate a regional classification based on intensity and synchrony, dividing the country into epidemic areas and bridge areas.