Redefining climate index with sea surface temperature of key area can better express atmospheric physical activity

TL;DR

This paper proposes redefining climate indices using sea surface temperature differences (SSTD) instead of traditional standardized anomalies, significantly improving correlation with hydrological data and better capturing physical ocean-atmosphere interactions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach of using SSTD for climate indices, revealing stronger physical correlations and long-term predictive capabilities linked to Earth's orbital parameters.

Findings

SSTD-based indices show correlation coefficients exceeding 0.8 with river runoff.

Standardization reduces correlation due to nonlinear data transformation.

Sun-earth distance strongly influences SST and SSTD, enabling long-term climate prediction.

Abstract

Since the 1920s, when the three oscillations ENSO, NAO and NPO were found and defined, the theory of ocean-atmosphere coupling is particularly important in explaining the phenomena of atmospheric physics, then defined more than ten climate indexes, such as SOI, AO, AAO and Nino monitoring area and so on, the indexes usually adopt standardized sea level pressure (SLP) difference or standardized sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) difference definitions. The survey is carried out with seventy stations runoff of major rivers in the world shows that the correlation coefficient between these indexes and runoff is very low, most of which is between 0.1-0.2, the impact of the index on the hydrologic climate cannot be truly reflected, which has led to doubts about the clear physical mechanism and even questions of teleological authenticity. This is due to the fact that standardization is a nonlinear process, which changes the structure of the original data, causing the correlation coefficient to be low. Using sea surface temperature difference (SSTD) to define these climate indexes, the correlation coefficient is significantly improved, the Hankou station of Yangtze river, Darband station of Ind, Hope station of Fraser, Bangui station of Oubangui generally exceeds 0.8 strong degree, which prove that these relevant elements have a high resonance effect, there must be a common driving physical quantity. We find that the sun-earth distance has a very strong resonance effect, it is the earth's rotational orbit that determines their common activity intensity and cycle characteristics. The sun-earth distance can accurately calculate the tens and hundreds years of SST and SSTD, if using the SST or SSTD as the climate indicators, which express physical process of various ocean-atmosphere coupling, we can thoroughly solve long-term ultra-long-term forecast of international difficulty problems.