Using marginal structural models to adjust for treatment drop-in when developing clinical prediction models

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel use of marginal structural models to adjust for treatment drop-in in clinical prediction models, improving risk estimation for treatment-naive scenarios in observational and trial data.

Contribution

The study demonstrates how MSMs can be effectively integrated into CPM development to correct for treatment drop-in bias, a novel approach in this context.

Findings

MSMs reduce underestimation of risk caused by treatment drop-in

Ignoring treatment drop-in leads to biased risk predictions

MSMs enable estimation of individual treatment effects

Abstract

Objectives: Clinical prediction models (CPMs) can inform decision-making concerning treatment initiation. Here, one requires predicted risks assuming that no treatment is given. This is challenging since CPMs are often derived in datasets where patients receive treatment; moreover, treatment can commence post-baseline - treatment drop-ins. This study presents a novel approach of using marginal structural models (MSMs) to adjust for treatment drop-in. Study Design and Setting: We illustrate the use of MSMs in the CPM framework through simulation studies, representing randomised controlled trials and observational data. The simulations include a binary treatment and a covariate, each recorded at two timepoints and having a prognostic effect on a binary outcome. The bias in predicted risk was examined in a model ignoring treatment, a model fitted on treatment na\"ive patients (at baseline), a model including baseline treatment, and the MSM. Results: In all simulation scenarios, all models except the MSM under-estimated the risk of outcome given absence of treatment. Consequently, CPMs that do not acknowledge treatment drop-in can lead to under-allocation of treatment. Conclusion: When developing CPMs to predict treatment-na\"ive risk, authors should consider using MSMs to adjust for treatment drop-in. MSMs also allow estimation of individual treatment effects.