Applying Machine Learning Methods to Enhance the Distribution of Social Services in Mexico

TL;DR

This paper presents machine learning applications to improve social service distribution in Mexico by addressing underreporting and characterizing poverty profiles, aiming to better match 7.4 million individuals with social programs.

Contribution

It introduces novel machine learning formulations and demonstrates their effectiveness using large-scale government data to enhance social service targeting in Mexico.

Findings

Survey data can indicate potential underreporting.

Geographic features improve housing and service indicators.

Transactional data helps characterize poverty dimensions.

Abstract

The Government of Mexico's social development agency, SEDESOL, is responsible for the administration of social services and has the mission of lifting Mexican families out of poverty. One key challenge they face is matching people who have social service needs with the services SEDESOL can provide accurately and efficiently. In this work we describe two specific applications implemented in collaboration with SEDESOL to enhance their distribution of social services. The first problem relates to systematic underreporting on applications for social services, which makes it difficult to identify where to prioritize outreach. Responding that five people reside in a home when only three do is a type of underreporting that could occur while a social worker conducts a home survey with a family to determine their eligibility for services. The second involves approximating multidimensional poverty profiles across households. That is, can we characterize different types of vulnerabilities -- for example, food insecurity and lack of health services -- faced by those in poverty? We detail the problem context, available data, our machine learning formulation, experimental results, and effective feature sets. As far as we are aware this is the first time government data of this scale has been used to combat poverty within Mexico. We found that survey data alone can suggest potential underreporting. Further, we found geographic features useful for housing and service related indicators and transactional data informative for other dimensions of poverty. The results from our machine learning system for estimating poverty profiles will directly help better match 7.4 million individuals to social programs.