A deterministic mathematical model for the spread of two rumors

TL;DR

This paper introduces a deterministic model for rumor spread using epidemiological concepts, analyzing how a second counter-rumor influences the dynamics, with qualitative and numerical analysis showing similarities to infectious disease spread.

Contribution

It presents a novel mathematical framework incorporating two competing rumors and analyzes their interaction using nonlinear epidemiological models.

Findings

Rumor dynamics resemble infectious disease spread.

Counter-rumors can significantly alter propagation patterns.

Model provides insights into controlling misinformation.

Abstract

In this paper we propose a deterministic mathematical model that attempts to explain the propagation of a rumor using SIRS type epidemiological models with temporary immunity and nonlinear incidence rate. In particular, we speculate about the dissemination of information when the so-called "complex networks" are used. The effect of introducing a second rumor, inspired by a vaccination model, in the same population of individuals, which will try to counteract the effect of the original rumor, is studied. That is a situation that occurs frequently in communities, when a rumor is counteracted by a contrary information or news, which behaves in the same way as a rumor. Furthermore, qualitative analysis and numerical experimentation of the dynamic model are performed. We corroborate that the dynamics of spreading rumors show similar behavior to that found in the dynamics of an infectious disease.