Cosmological discordances II: Hubble constant, Planck and large-scale-structure data sets

TL;DR

This paper systematically analyzes the inconsistencies between various cosmological data sets, especially focusing on the Hubble constant, Planck CMB data, and large-scale structure measurements, highlighting potential systematic issues and future challenges.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive inconsistency index (IOI) to quantify and dissect tensions among cosmological data sets, providing new insights into their compatibility and implications for cosmology.

Findings

Local H0 measurements appear as outliers, suggesting possible systematics.

Moderate inconsistency exists between Planck temperature and polarization data.

Future LSS data may significantly increase the observed discordance, reaching strong inconsistency levels.

Abstract

We examine systematically the (in)consistency between cosmological constraints as obtained from various current data sets of the expansion history, Large Scale Structure (LSS), and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) from Planck. We run (dis)concordance tests within each set and across the sets using a recently introduced index of inconsistency (IOI) capable of dissecting inconsistencies between two or more data sets. First, we compare the constraints on $H_0$ from five different methods and find that the IOI drops from 2.85 to 0.88 (on Jeffreys' scales) when the local $H_0$ measurements is removed. This seems to indicate that the local measurement is an outlier, thus favoring a systematics-based explanation. We find a moderate inconsistency (IOI=2.61) between Planck temperature and polarization. We find that current LSS data sets including WiggleZ, SDSS RSD, CFHTLenS, CMB lensing and SZ cluster count, are consistent one with another and when all combined. However, we find a persistent moderate inconsistency between Planck and individual or combined LSS probes. For Planck TT+lowTEB versus individual LSS probes, the IOI spans the range 2.92--3.72 and increases to 3.44--4.20 when the polarization data is added in. The joint LSS versus the combined Planck temperature and polarization has an IOI of 2.83 in the most conservative case. But if Planck lowTEB is added to the joint LSS to constrain $\tau$ and break degeneracies, the inconsistency between Planck and joint LSS data increases to the high-end of the moderate range with IOI=4.81. Whether due to systematic effects in the data or to the underlying model, these inconsistencies need to be resolved. Finally, we perform forecast calculations using LSST and find that the discordance between Planck and future LSS data, if it persists as present, can rise up to a high IOI of 17, thus falling in the strong range of inconsistency. (Abridged).