Bayesian naturalness, simplicity, and testability applied to the $B-L$ MSSM GUT

TL;DR

This paper applies Bayesian model comparison to grand unified theories (GUTs), demonstrating its effectiveness in quantifying naturalness and testability, and finds that certain GUT models are strongly favored over non-unifying models.

Contribution

It introduces Bayesian model comparison into GUT analysis, resolving a naturalness paradox and identifying favored GUT models based on Bayesian evidence.

Findings

GUTs are substantially favored over non-unifying models

The $B-L$ MSSM GUT is the most favored among considered models

Bayesian comparison resolves naturalness paradoxes in proton mass

Abstract

Recent years have seen increased use of Bayesian model comparison to quantify notions such as naturalness, simplicity, and testability, especially in the area of supersymmetric model building. After demonstrating that Bayesian model comparison can resolve a paradox that has been raised in the literature concerning the naturalness of the proton mass, we apply Bayesian model comparison to GUTs, an area to which it has not been applied before. We find that the GUTs are substantially favored over the non-unifying puzzle model. Of the GUTs we consider, the $B-L$ MSSM GUT is the most favored, but the MSSM GUT is almost equally favored.