The evaluation of the systematic uncertainties for the finite MC samples in the presence of negative weights

TL;DR

This paper addresses how to incorporate systematic uncertainties from finite Monte Carlo samples with negative weights in high-energy physics data analysis, proposing methods and comparisons for improved uncertainty estimation.

Contribution

It introduces a new approach to account for systematic uncertainties from finite MC samples with negative weights, including discussion of approximations and method comparisons.

Findings

Proposes a method to include uncertainties from finite MC samples with negative weights.

Compares different approaches for systematic uncertainty estimation.

Provides insights into approximations suitable for negative weight scenarios.

Abstract

The analysis of results from HEP experiments often involves the estimates of the composition of the binned data samples, based on Monte Carlo simulations of various sources. Due to a finite statistic of MC samples they have statistical fluctuation. This work proposes the method of incorporating the systematic uncertainties due to finite statistics of MC samples with negative weights. The possible approximations are discussed and the comparison of different methods are presented.