Analysis of Annual Cyclone Frequencies over Bay of Bengal: Effect of 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

TL;DR

This study analyzes the trend and variability of cyclone frequencies over the Bay of Bengal from 1891 to 2015, revealing a significant decrease in cyclone activity after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, with implications for disaster management.

Contribution

The paper introduces a novel analysis of cyclone frequency changes before and after the 2004 tsunami using non-homogeneous Poisson processes and change-point detection methods.

Findings

Significant decrease in cyclone intensity post-2004 tsunami

All cyclone categories show a downward trend in frequency

Change-point analysis confirms the significance of the observed decrease

Abstract

This paper discusses the time series trend and variability of the cyclone frequencies over Bay of Bengal, particularly in order to conclude if there is any significant difference in the pattern visible before and after the disastrous 2004 Indian ocean tsunami based on the observed annual cyclone frequency data obtained by India Meteorological Department over the years 1891-2015. Three different categories of cyclones- depression (<34 knots), cyclonic storm (34-47 knots) and severe cyclonic storm (>47 knots) have been analyzed separately using a non-homogeneous Poisson process approach. The estimated intensity functions of the Poisson processes along with their first two derivatives are discussed and all three categories show decreasing trend of the intensity functions after the tsunami. Using an exact change-point analysis, we show that the drops in mean intensity functions are significant for all three categories. As of author's knowledge, no study so far have discussed the relation between cyclones and tsunamis. Bay of Bengal is surrounded by one of the most densely populated areas of the world and any kind of significant change in tropical cyclone pattern has a large impact in various ways, for example, disaster management planning and our study is immensely important from that perspective.