Oil economy phase plot: a physical analogy

TL;DR

This paper constructs a phase plot of the oil economy using production, price, and EROEI data, drawing an analogy with Benard convection to interpret and forecast system behavior.

Contribution

It introduces a novel physical analogy between the oil economy and Benard convection, providing new methods for interpretation and forecasting.

Findings

Phase plot reveals dynamic patterns in oil economy data.

Analogy offers insights into system stability and transitions.

Proposes a visual 'scenery' for understanding oil market behavior.

Abstract

A phase plot of the oil economy is built using the literature data of world oil production, price, and EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested). An analogy between the oil economy and the Benard convection is proposed; some methods of interpretation and forecast of the system behavior are also shown based on "phase portrait" using as main variables the price, production and EROEI values. A scenery is proposed on this basis.