On the relative role of different age groups during epidemics associated with the respiratory syncytial virus

TL;DR

This study analyzes the role of different age groups in propagating RSV epidemics, revealing preschool and young school-age children as key drivers, which can inform targeted vaccination strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel method to estimate the relative role of age groups in RSV spread using hospitalization data and relative risk calculations.

Findings

Children aged 3-4y and 5-6y had the highest relative risk estimates in multiple seasons.

Infants and those 11y and older generally had lower relative risks.

Results suggest preschool and young school-age children are primary propagators of RSV epidemics.

Abstract

Background: While RSV circulation results in high burden of hospitalization, particularly among infants, young children and the elderly, little is known about the role of different age groups in propagating annual RSV epidemics in the community. Methods: During a communicable disease outbreak, some subpopulations may play a disproportionate role during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion that cases in a subpopulation represent among all cases in the population occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several age groups using data on RSV hospitalizations in the US between 2001-2012 from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP). Results: Children aged 3-4y and 5-6y each had the highest RR estimate for 5/11 seasons in the data, with RSV hospitalization rates in infants being generally higher during seasons when children aged 5-6y had the highest RR estimates. Children aged 2y had the highest RR estimate during one season. RR estimates in infants and individuals aged 11y and older were mostly lower than in children aged 1-10y. Conclusions: The RR estimates suggest that preschool and young school-age children have the leading relative roles during RSV epidemics. We hope that those results will aid in the design of RSV vaccination policies.