Human life is unlimited - but short

TL;DR

This study analyzes demographic data to argue that there is no fixed biological upper limit to human lifespan, with mortality rates stabilizing after age 110, though practical longevity may be limited by current biotechnology.

Contribution

The paper introduces new analysis methods for extreme age mortality data and provides evidence against a finite human lifespan limit based on demographic data.

Findings

Mortality after age 110 is about 47% per year.

No significant differences in mortality after age 110 across sexes, ages, or lifestyles.

No evidence of a finite upper limit to human lifespan.

Abstract

Does the human lifespan have an impenetrable biological upper limit which ultimately will stop further increase in life lengths? This question is important for understanding aging, and for society, and has led to intense controversies. Demographic data for humans has been interpreted as showing existence of a limit, or even as an indication of a decreasing limit, but also as evidence that a limit does not exist. This paper studies what can be inferred from data about human mortality at extreme age. We show that in western countries and Japan and after age 110 the probability of dying is about 47% per year. Hence there is no finite upper limit to the human lifespan. Still, given the present stage of biotechnology, it is unlikely that during the next 25 years anyone will live longer than 128 years in these countries. Data, remarkably, shows no difference in mortality after age 110 between sexes, between ages, or between different lifestyles or genetic backgrounds. These results, and the analysis methods developed in this paper, can help testing biological theories of ageing and aid confirmation of success of efforts to find a cure for ageing.