The Polymorphic Evolution Sequence for Populations with Phenotypic Plasticity

TL;DR

This paper introduces a generalized model for the evolution of populations with phenotypic plasticity, analyzing its large population limit and convergence to a Markov jump process, extending previous polymorphic evolution sequences.

Contribution

It develops a comprehensive framework for populations with phenotypic switching, extending existing models to include phenotype plasticity and analyzing their asymptotic behavior.

Findings

Convergence to a generalized polymorphic evolution sequence.

Model captures rapid phenotypic switching dynamics.

Provides a mathematical foundation for tumor evolution modeling.

Abstract

In this paper we study a class of stochastic individual-based models that describe the evolution of haploid populations where each individual is characterised by a phenotype and a genotype. The phenotype of an individual determines its natural birth- and death rates as well as the competition kernel, $c(x,y)$ which describes the induced death rate that an individual of type $x$ experiences due to the presence of an individual or type $y$. When a new individual is born, with a small probability a mutation occurs, i.e. the offspring has different genotype as the parent. The novel aspect of the models we study is that an individual with a given genotype may express a certain set of different phenotypes, and during its lifetime it may switch between different phenotypes, with rates that are much larger then the mutation rates and that, moreover, may depend on the state of the entire population. The evolution of the population is described by a continuous-time, measure-valued Markov process. In our last paper [4], such a model was proposed to describe tumor evolution under immunotherapy. In the present paper we consider a large class of models which comprises the example studied in [4] and analyse their scaling limits as the population size tends to infinity and the mutation rate tends to zero. Under suitable assumptions, we prove convergence to a Markov jump process that is a generalisation of the polymorphic evolution sequence (PES) as analysed by Champagnat and M\'el\'eard [8, 10].