Mathematical modelling of zika virus in Brazil

TL;DR

This paper develops and validates deterministic SIR models to understand the spread of Zika virus in Brazil, confirming key epidemic parameters and exploring regional variations.

Contribution

It introduces a parsimonious model incorporating both human and vector populations to accurately describe Zika epidemic dynamics in Brazil.

Findings

The basic reproduction number R0 aligns with previous studies.

Models accurately fit regional epidemic data.

Including vector populations improves model fit.

Abstract

In this paper we study some deterministic mathematical models that seek to explain the expansion of zika virus, as a viral epidemic, using published data for Brazil. SIR type models are proposed and validated using the epidemic data found, considering several aspects in the spread of the disease. Finally, we confirmed that the crucial epidemic parameter such as $R_0$ is consistent with those previously reported in the literature for other areas. We also explored variations of the parameters within Brazil for different federal entities. We concluded that a parsimonious model that includes both human and vector populations best describe the epidemic parameters.