Characterization of exoplanets from their formation III: The statistics of planetary luminosities

TL;DR

This study models and analyzes the statistical distribution of exoplanet luminosities during formation and evolution, providing predictions that can be compared with direct imaging observations and survey data.

Contribution

It offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of planetary luminosities, including the effects of accretional heating and formation history, advancing understanding of observable exoplanet characteristics.

Findings

High post-formation luminosities for hot and cold gas accretion.

Luminosity spread at fixed mass can reach 2-3 orders of magnitude.

Predicted flat log-luminosity distribution for giant planets.

Abstract

This paper continues a series in which we predict the main observable characteristics of exoplanets based on their formation. In Paper I we described our global planet formation and evolution model. In Paper II we studied the planetary mass-radius relationship. Here we present an extensive study of the statistics of planetary luminosities during both formation and evolution. Our results can be compared with individual directly imaged (proto)planets as well as statistical results from surveys. We calculated three synthetic planet populations assuming different efficiencies of the accretional heating by gas and planetesimals. We describe the temporal evolution of the planetary mass-luminosity relation. We study the shock and internal luminosity during formation. We predict a statistical version of the post-formation mass versus entropy "tuning fork" diagram. We find high nominal post-formation luminosities for hot and cold gas accretion. Individual formation histories can still lead to a factor of a few spread in the post-formation luminosity at a given mass. However, if the gas and planetesimal accretional heating is unknown, the post-formation luminosity may exhibit a spread of as much as 2-3 orders of magnitude at a fixed mass covering cold, warm, and hot states. As a key result we predict a flat log-luminosity distribution for giant planets, and a steep increase towards lower luminosities due to the higher occurrence rate of low-mass planets. Future surveys may detect this upturn. During formation an estimate of the planet mass may be possible for cold gas accretion if the gas accretion rate can be estimated. Due to the "core-mass effect" planets that underwent cold gas accretion can still have high post-formation entropies. Once the number of directly imaged exoplanets with known ages and luminosities increases, the observed distributions may be compared with our predictions.