Dynamics of homelessness in urban America

TL;DR

This study models the temporal dynamics of homelessness in major U.S. cities, revealing a strong link between rental costs and homelessness, with implications for policy and measurement accuracy.

Contribution

It introduces a dynamic Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze time-varying homeless counts, accounting for measurement uncertainty and distinguishing between counted and true homeless populations.

Findings

Homelessness rates are most strongly linked to rental costs in NY, LA, DC, and Seattle.

The inferred increase in homelessness from 2011-2016 depends on prior assumptions about count accuracy.

Measurement uncertainty significantly affects the estimated relationship between rent and homelessness.

Abstract

The relationship between housing costs and homelessness has important implications for the way that city and county governments respond to increasing homeless populations. Though many analyses in the public policy literature have examined inter-community variation in homelessness rates to identify causal mechanisms of homelessness (Byrne et al., 2013; Lee et al., 2003; Fargo et al., 2013), few studies have examined time-varying homeless counts within the same community (McCandless et al., 2016). To examine trends in homeless population counts in the 25 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, we develop a dynamic Bayesian hierarchical model for time-varying homeless count data. Particular care is given to modeling uncertainty in the homeless count generating and measurement processes, and a critical distinction is made between the counted number of homeless and the true size of the homeless population. For each metro under study, we investigate the relationship between increases in the Zillow Rent Index and increases in the homeless population. Sensitivity of inference to potential improvements in the accuracy of point-in-time counts is explored, and evidence is presented that the inferred increase in the rate of homelessness from 2011-2016 depends on prior beliefs about the accuracy of homeless counts. A main finding of the study is that the relationship between homelessness and rental costs is strongest in New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and Seattle.