Robust and Flexible Estimation of Stochastic Mediation Effects: A Proposed Method and Example in a Randomized Trial Setting

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel, robust semiparametric estimator for stochastic mediation effects that addresses confounding issues in causal mediation analysis, demonstrated through simulations and a real randomized trial example.

Contribution

It develops a flexible, double robust estimator for stochastic direct and indirect effects that relaxes traditional assumptions and is easy to implement with available R code.

Findings

Estimator performs well in finite samples and is robust to model misspecification.

Application to a randomized trial shows no mediation effect in the example.

Method improves causal mediation analysis in complex confounding scenarios.

Abstract

Causal mediation analysis can improve understanding of the mechanisms underlying epidemiologic associations. However, the utility of natural direct and indirect effect estimation has been limited by the assumption of no confounder of the mediator-outcome relationship that is affected by prior exposure---an assumption frequently violated in practice. We build on recent work that identified alternative estimands that do not require this assumption and propose a flexible and double robust semiparametric targeted minimum loss-based estimator for data-dependent stochastic direct and indirect effects. The proposed method treats the intermediate confounder affected by prior exposure as a time-varying confounder and intervenes stochastically on the mediator using a distribution which conditions on baseline covariates and marginalizes over the intermediate confounder. In addition, we assume the stochastic intervention is given, conditional on observed data, which results in a simpler estimator and weaker identification assumptions. We demonstrate the estimator's finite sample and robustness properties in a simple simulation study. We apply the method to an example from the Moving to Opportunity experiment. In this application, randomization to receive a housing voucher is the treatment/instrument that influenced moving to a low-poverty neighborhood, which is the intermediate confounder. We estimate the data-dependent stochastic direct effect of randomization to the voucher group on adolescent marijuana use not mediated by change in school district and the stochastic indirect effect mediated by change in school district. We find no evidence of mediation. Our estimator is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and we provide annotated R code to further lower implementation barriers.