Likelihood test in permutations with bias. Premier League and La Liga: surprises during the last 25 seasons

TL;DR

This paper introduces biased permutation models and a new statistical test to analyze if soccer league results over 25 seasons align with expected preferences, revealing potential surprises.

Contribution

It presents a novel parametric test for biased permutations and an efficient p-value calculation method for sports league data analysis.

Findings

Test applied to Premier League and La Liga data

Identified seasons with unexpected results

Method improves detection of deviations from expectations

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce the models of permutations with bias, which are random permutations of a set, biased by some preference values. We present a new parametric test, together with an efficient way to calculate its p-value. The final tables of the English and Spanish major soccer leagues are tested according to this new procedure, to discover whether these results were aligned with expectations.