Spatial and historical determinants of separatism and integration. 2. Quantitative analysis

TL;DR

This paper develops a quantitative model to analyze how geographical and historical factors influence separatist movements, introducing indices to measure regional separateness and historical influence, and testing their effects on separatist disturbances.

Contribution

It introduces two novel indices for geographical and historical factors and empirically tests their impact on separatist outbreaks, extending previous qualitative models.

Findings

Geographical index correlates with minority speakers and disturbances.

Historical index captures long-term memory effects on separatism.

Model explains variation in separatist activity across regions.

Abstract

In part 1 we have discussed the role played by geographical and historical conditions. Here we wish to test our model and to estimate its parameters. Ti this effect two indexes are introduced. The geographical index is aimed at characterizing the degree of separateness of a given region with respect to the national state to which it belongs. This index turns out to be closely connected to the number of minority-speakers; it is also correlated with the level of separatist disturbances, at least for samples having the same historical background. The purpose of the second index is precisely to specify the role of past episodes in shaping current separatist outbreaks. To a large extent, current episodes are modeled on former ones; typically this process of semi-replication appears to be characterized by a "memory" that extends over at least one and a half century. Note that this study concentrates on the occurrence and forms of separatist struggles rather than on their short-term political causes. In so doing, it follows a methodological track that has been pioneered by Stanley Lieberson (1985, the "stardom" paradigm) and Charles Tilly (1993, the "traffic jam" paradigm).