An Unsupervised Method for Estimating the Global Horizontal Irradiance from Photovoltaic Power Measurements

TL;DR

This paper introduces an unsupervised physical-model-based method to estimate global horizontal irradiance from PV power data, offering a cost-effective alternative to satellite measurements with superior high-resolution performance.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel unsupervised approach to derive GHI from PV power measurements, eliminating the need for on-site sensors or supervised training.

Findings

Method outperforms satellite services in accuracy

Effective at high temporal resolutions

Applicable to small and medium PV plants

Abstract

In this paper, we present a method to determine the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from the power measurements of one or more PV systems, located in the same neighborhood. The method is completely unsupervised and is based on a physical model of a PV plant. The precise assessment of solar irradiance is pivotal for the forecast of the electric power generated by photovoltaic (PV) plants. However, on-ground measurements are expensive and are generally not performed for small and medium-sized PV plants. Satellite-based services represent a valid alternative to on site measurements, but their space-time resolution is limited. Results from two case studies located in Switzerland are presented. The performance of the proposed method at assessing GHI is compared with that of free and commercial satellite services. Our results show that the presented method is generally better than satellite-based services, especially at high temporal resolutions.