Utsu aftershock productivity law explained from geometric operations on the permanent static stress field of mainshocks

TL;DR

This paper explains the empirical Utsu aftershock productivity law using geometric operations on static stress fields, predicting a break in scaling that may be obscured in observational data.

Contribution

It introduces a geometric theory of seismicity that derives the exponential productivity law and predicts a scaling break between small and large magnitudes.

Findings

Recover the exponential form of the Utsu law from geometric operations.

Predict a scaling break between small and large magnitudes.

Suggest observational artifacts may hide the theoretical scaling break.

Abstract

The aftershock productivity law, first described by Utsu in 1970, is an exponential function of the form K=K0.exp({\alpha}M) where K is the number of aftershocks, M the mainshock magnitude, and {\alpha} the productivity parameter. The Utsu law remains empirical in nature although it has also been retrieved in static stress simulations. Here, we explain this law based on Solid Seismicity, a geometrical theory of seismicity where seismicity patterns are described by mathematical expressions obtained from geometric operations on a permanent static stress field. We recover the exponential form but with a break in scaling predicted between small and large magnitudes M, with {\alpha}=1.5ln(10) and ln(10), respectively, in agreement with results from previous static stress simulations. We suggest that the lack of break in scaling observed in seismicity catalogues (with {\alpha}=ln(10)) could be an artefact from existing aftershock selection methods, which assume a continuous behavior over the full magnitude range. While the possibility for such an artefact is verified in simulations, the existence of the theoretical kink remains to be proven.