# Economics of limiting cumulative CO2 emissions

## TL;DR

This paper models the global economic costs of limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, highlighting the importance of early rapid decarbonization to minimize future mitigation burdens and proposing a mathematical framework for optimal emission reduction strategies.

## Contribution

It introduces a new model of global mitigation costs based on cumulative CO2, incorporating decarbonization effects and a variational approach to optimize emission reduction trajectories.

## Key findings

- Mitigation costs are convex functions of cumulative CO2 emissions.
- Early rapid decarbonization significantly reduces future mitigation burden.
- Failure to decarbonize early increases long-term economic costs.

## Abstract

Global warming from carbon dioxide (CO2) is known to depend on cumulative CO2 emissions. We introduce a model of global expenditures on limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, taking into account effects of decarbonization and rising global income and making an approximation to the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of CO2. Discounted mitigation expenditures are shown to be a convex function of cumulative CO2 emissions. We also consider minimum-expenditure solutions for meeting cumulative emissions goals, using a regularized variational method yielding an initial value problem in the integrated decarbonization rate. A quasi-stationary solution to this problem can be obtained for a special case, yielding decarbonization rate that is proportional to annual CO2 emissions. Minimum-expenditure trajectories in scenarios where CO2 emissions decrease must begin with rapid decarbonization at rate decreasing with time. Due to the shape of global MAC the fraction of global income spent on CO2 mitigation ("burden") generally increases with time, as cheaper avenues for mitigation are exhausted. Therefore failure to rapidly decarbonize early on reduces expenditures by a small fraction (on the order of 0.01 %) of income in the present, but leads to much higher burden to future generations (on the order of 1 % of income).