The damage inflicted by a computer virus: A new estimation method

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel method for estimating computer virus damage by combining an epidemiological model with economic analysis, considering antivirus development costs and network factors through simulations.

Contribution

It is the first to incorporate antivirus development costs into virus damage estimation using a delayed SIR model and simulation analysis.

Findings

Antivirus development costs significantly impact total damage estimates.

Network structure and delay influence virus spread and damage.

Proposed measures can effectively reduce virus damage.

Abstract

This paper addressed the issue of estimating the damage caused by a computer virus. First, an individual-level delayed SIR model capturing the spreading process of a digital virus is derived. Second, the damage inflicted by the virus is modeled as the sum of the economic losses and the cost for developing the antivirus. Next, the impact of different factors, including the delay and the network structure, on the damage is explored by means of computer simulations. Thereby some measures of reducing the damage of a virus are recommended. To our knowledge, this is the first time the antivirus-developing cost is taken into account when estimating the damage of a virus.