Ride Sharing and Dynamic Networks Analysis

TL;DR

This paper investigates the volatility of ride-sharing utilization in NYC, proposing a network-based model to analyze, predict, and understand its dynamic nature for better policy and planning decisions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel network-centric approach to model and forecast ride-sharing utilization dynamics based on topological features of traffic networks.

Findings

Ride-sharing utilization is highly volatile over time.

The proposed model can forecast utilization a few hours in advance.

Static policies may be inefficient due to utilization volatility.

Abstract

The potential of an efficient ride-sharing scheme to significantly reduce traffic congestion, lower emission level, as well as facilitating the introduction of smart cities has been widely demonstrated. This positive thrust however is faced with several delaying factors, one of which is the volatility and unpredictability of the potential benefit (or utilization) of ride-sharing at different times, and in different places. In this work the following research questions are posed: (a) Is ride-sharing utilization stable over time or does it undergo significant changes? (b) If ride-sharing utilization is dynamic, can it be correlated with some traceable features of the traffic? and (c) If ride-sharing utilization is dynamic, can it be predicted ahead of time? We analyze a dataset of over 14 Million taxi trips taken in New York City. We propose a dynamic travel network approach for modeling and forecasting the potential ride-sharing utilization over time, showing it to be highly volatile. In order to model the utilization's dynamics we propose a network-centric approach, projecting the aggregated traffic taken from continuous time periods into a feature space comprised of topological features of the network implied by this traffic. This feature space is then used to model the dynamics of ride-sharing utilization over time. The results of our analysis demonstrate the significant volatility of ride-sharing utilization over time, indicating that any policy, design or plan that would disregard this aspect and chose a static paradigm would undoubtably be either highly inefficient or provide insufficient resources. We show that using our suggested approach it is possible to model the potential utilization of ride sharing based on the topological properties of the rides network. We also show that using this method the potential utilization can be forecasting a few hours ahead of time.